ABSTRACT:

“Supply-side structural reform” (SSSR) has been the most important ongoing economic reform in China since 2015, but its important environmental health effects have not been properly assessed. The present study addresses that gap by focusing on reduction of overcapacity in the coal, steel, and iron sectors, combined with reduction of emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and projecting resultant effects on air quality and public health across cities and regions in China. Modeling results indicate that effects on air quality and public health are visible and distributed unevenly across the country. This assessment provides quantitative evidence supporting projections of the transregional distribution of such effects. Such uneven transregional distribution complicates management of air quality and health risks in China.The results challenge approaches that rely solely on cities to improve air quality. The article concludes with suggestions on how to integrate SSSR measures with cities' air quality improvement attainment planning and management performance evaluation.

KEYWORDS: Supply-side structural reform, Air quality Health effects of air pollution, Transregional distribution, Environmental policy

摘要:

"供给侧结构性改革"（SSSR）是2015年以来中国正在进行的最重要的经济改革，但其重要的环境健康影响尚未得到适当评估。本研究针对这一空白，聚焦于减少煤炭、钢铁行业的过剩产能，结合二氧化硫（SO2）、氮氧化物（NOx）和细颗粒物（PM2.5）的减排，并预测由此对中国各城市和地区空气质量和公众健康的影响。模拟结果表明，对空气质量和公众健康的影响是明显的，而且在全国范围内分布不均。本评估提供了定量证据，支持对这种影响的跨区域分布的预测。这种不均衡的跨区域分布使中国的空气质量和健康风险管理变得更加复杂。结果对单纯依靠城市改善空气质量的方法提出了挑战。文章最后就如何将SSSR措施与城市的空气质量改善达标规划和管理绩效评估相结合提出了建议。

关键词：供给侧结构性改革 空气质量 空气污染的健康效应 跨区域分布 环境政策

原载于 Zhang W., L. Zhang* et al., “Neglected environmental health impacts of China's supply-side structural reform”, Environment International, 115 (2018) 97–103.

原文链接：https://www.canr.msu.edu/resources/neglected-environmental-health-impacts-chinas-supply-side-structural-reform