ABSTRACT: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID−19) pandemic has brought unprecedented public health, social and economic challenges. It remains unclear whether seasonal changes in ambient temperature will alter spreading trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. The probable mechanism on this is still lacking. This review summarizes the most recent research data on the effect of ambient temperature on the COVID-19 epidemic characteristic. The available data suggest that: (i) mesophilic traits of viruses are different due to their molecular composition; (ii) increasing ambient temperature decreases the persistence of some viruses in aquatic media; (iii) a 1℃ increase in the average monthly minimum ambient temperatures (AMMAT) was related to a 0.72% fewer mammalian individuals that would be infected by coronavirus; (iv) proportion of zoonotic viruses of mammals including humans is probably related to their body temperature difference; (v) seasonal divergence between the northern and southern hemispheres may be a significant driver in determining a waved trajectory in the next two years. Further research is needed to understand its effects and mechanisms of global temperature change so that effective strategies can be adopted to curb its natural effects. This paper mainly explores possible scientific hypothesis and evidences that local communities and authorities should consider to find optimal solutions that can limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

KEYWORDS: COVID-19, ambient temperature, global seasonal change, mammals, trend prediction

摘要:

新型冠状病毒引发的肺炎疫情（COVID−19）给公共卫生、社会和经济带来了前所未有的挑战。目前尚不清楚环境温度的季节性变化是否会改变COVID-19的全球传播和流行特征，对其影响机制的研究仍然十分缺乏。本文综述了环境温度对COVID-19流行特性影响的历史文献资料，并进行了必要的统计分析和建模。本研究形成以下结论：1）病毒的温度选择特性在一定程度上由病毒类型以及分子组成所决定；2）提高环境温度会降低冠状病毒、流感病毒等多数病毒在水环境介质中的存活能力；3）月平均最低环境温度（AMMAT）每升高1℃，哺乳动物感染冠状病毒（α和β亚型）的比率降低0.72%；4）包括人类在内的哺乳动物携带人畜共患病毒的比例可能与其生理体温有关；5）南北半球的季节性交替是决定未来新冠病毒全球流行轨迹呈现破浪式发展的驱动因素之一。本文呼吁，需进一步研究全球气温变化对新冠病毒流行特征的影响和机制，以便采取有效的策略削弱其自然传播能力。通过为政府和政策制定部门提供疫情防控中应考虑的可能的科学假设和证据，以找到限制SARS-CoV-2病毒传播的最佳解决方案。

关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情，环境温度，全球气候变化，哺乳动物，趋势预测

原载于Environmental Science and Pollution Research

本成果受到十大信誉赌博官网平台“双一流”跨学科重大创新规划平台支持

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14625-8

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